Venezuela Conflict Ahead?

An aircraft carrier, the USS Gerald R. Ford, arrived with its escorts off the coast of Puerto Rico last week. It joins a roster of other ships:

• destroyers USS Stockdale and USS Gravely
• guided-missile cruiser USS Lake Erie (CG-70)
• amphibious warships USS Iwo Jima, USS Fort Lauderdale, and USS San Antonio

Secretary Hegseth explained this and other military expansion as a way of combatting foreign influence in the Americas, according to the San Juan Daily Star, and President Trump concurred, saying, “This is a good time to expand if we want to do it — and I think we should, and probably will,”

Some observers believe that the presence of the aircraft carrier makes it likely that there will be armed conflict in the region. The military buildup in and around Puerto Rico is the most ambitious seen since the Cuban Missile Crisis in the 1960s.

Venezuelan Minister of People’s Power for Defence Vladimir Padrino announced a “massive deployment” of their military.

So is U.S.-Venezuela conflict ahead?

What does the U.S. government say?

Both Trump and Secretary of State Marco Rubio have made statements suggesting that a Venezuela conflict could take place.

The Senate held a vote earlier this month on a law intending “To direct the removal of United States Armed Forces from hostilities within or against Venezuela that have not been authorized by Congress.” It lost. It had 51 “yes” votes, but the filibuster makes it impossible to pass a law in the Senate without a supermajority of 60 votes.  The White House had assured the Senate that it had no plans to attack Venezuela.

The War Powers Act was passed in 1973. It requires presidents to alert Congress to any upcoming hostilities within 48 hours of deploying the military. Congress must then approve the military action within 60-90 days before it can continue. The Trump administration says that attacks on the suspected drug running boats are not “hostilities.” They also believe that since the attacks have not taken place on land, they are not covered by the War Powers Act.

How would Puerto Rico be affected?

A U.S.-Venezuela conflict would certainly see Puerto Rico taking center stage for military action. Puerto Rico has a long and proud tradition of military service in the U.S. armed forces. Some would welcome the involvement and others would not — just as would be true in any state. However, Puerto Rico has no voting representatives in Congress to speak up for the Island. Decisions would be made in Washington, D.C., with limited input from Puerto Rico. This fact could increase dissatisfaction with unincorporated territory status, which is already very unpopular on the Island.

Re-opening the Roosevelt Roads base would be a boost to Puerto Rico’s economy, but there could be negative effects on tourism in the long run. On the other hand, infrastructure investments to support military logistics could provide long-term solutions to current problems with logistics that affect health care, manufacturing, imports, and exports.

The possibility of environmental effects and even a chance of retaliation must also be considered.

However, Puerto Rico has little voice in federal decisions making. As a state, Puerto Rico would have two Senators and several Members of Congress. As a territory, Puerto Rico has no voting representatives in Congress, and cannot vote in presidential elections.