Jump on the Bandwagon?

You can easily find headlines like these:

• Support Is Rising for Puerto Rican Independence
• Resurgent Puerto Rico Independence Movement Challenges 126 Years of Colonialism
• Is Puerto Rico Ready for a Pro-Independence Governor? It Looks Like It

They reflect claims that Puerto Rico, after decades of the majority favoring statehood, is now moving toward independence. Is this true?

Is independence more popular than it was before?

Yes. Independence got a little bit less than 12% of votes in the last status referendum — more than they have ever received before.

Is independence popular in Puerto Rico?

Obviously not. 12% is a small fraction of the voters. The previous record — 5% — was a tiny fraction, but 12% is still a very small fraction.

Almost 12 percent of Puerto Rico voters chose independence in 2024.

Independence has never won a status vote. An Independence Party has never won the race for Governor of Puerto Rico nor for resident commissioner. Independence just isn’t a popular option in Puerto Rico.

Why is independence so unpopular?

Most Puerto Ricans value their U.S. citizenship. Most are patriotic Americans. Most have family in the states and want to be able to travel freely back and forth. Many like the benefits of being part of the United States. Many appreciate being able to study, receive medical care, and work in the states if they choose. Few are willing to go through the hardships independence would entail, since it is not something they strongly desire.

Even though separatists like to talk about independence with guaranteed citizenship, reparations, continued financial support from the United States, and more perks than the current territory status offers, not to mention the eager support of the rest of the world’s nations, these are dreams. No nation, including the United States, has offered these goodies to Puerto Rico. The Philippines, a former U.S. territory that became independent in the 20th century, did not receive these things. People living on the Island are generally aware that independence would not be easy.

Then why say that independence is popular?

These claims are in many cases an example of the bandwagon effect. People do things because they are popular. Claiming that something is popular is a classic way to encourage people to do something. You might have seen it in advertisements:

• “Coca-Cola — the drink everybody knows”
• “Over a million Australians have already tried Oral-B toothbrushes”
• “McDonald’s — over 99 billion served”

Slogans like these don’t show anything about quality or value. They simply say that other people are making this choice, so you should, too.

Separatists used to have to rely on claims like “Most people would support independence but they are afraid to do so because of oppression” or “An independent Puerto Rico could be like Singapore.” Since independence got 11.8% in the 2024 status referendum, they can say that they got a huge increase in popularity! Compared with 5, almost-12 is pretty big. It’s more than twice as big as 5.

But it’s still 12%. Like the claims that Members of Congress were pressuring Trump to make Puerto Rico independent, claims that independence is becoming popular are disinformation. They are attempts to convince people of something that is not actually true. They are at the least disingenuous, and perhaps intentionally deceptive.

If people are deceived, though, and they begin to believe that independence is much more popular than it really is, then they might jump on the bandwagon or subirse al carro, as the saying goes. They hope that, while it may not be true now, it might be possible to make it true by saying it many times.

Statehood really is popular

Statehood has received a majority of votes in four status referenda — all that have taken place in this century. Statehood is the preferred status option in polls in Puerto Rico and in the states. Statehood candidates regularly win elections in Puerto Rico. Statehood supporters don’t have to be deceptive. Just sharing the facts is enough to show that statehood is the preferred status for most people in Puerto Rico. Make sure your congressional representatives know this.