Could Republicans Appeal to Puerto Rico?

If we look at U.S. history, we can see that some very serious issues have delayed the admission of states in the past. Slavery was a hot topic in fights over admission for a long time. Whether women should be able to vote was another big issue. Polygamy was legal in some territories that wanted to become states, and they had to give it up. Oregon had laws forbidding black people to live there. Florida was at war and Texas was, Congress feared, on the brink. These are issues worth debating. The main issue blocking Puerto Rico’s admission as a state seems to be a Republican fear that they will not be able to convince anyone in Puerto Rico to vote for them. Are they right? Could Republicans appeal to Puerto Rico voters — or is it impossible?

Are Republicans insecure?

Put baldly like this, the question may seem silly. Yet many Republicans have made claims about Puerto Rico statehood that sound like a serious level of insecurity:

• “We’d never get the Senate back,” Rep. Martha McSally said about Puerto Rico statehood on NBC news
• “This is full-bore socialism on the march in the House… and, yeah, as long as I am majority leader in the Senate, none of that stuff is going anywhere,” said Mitch McConnell to the press.
• “If they pull off adding these two States, these Country Destroying Sleazebags will dominate politics in America, if we even have a Nation left, for 100 years,” Donald Trump posted on social media, speaking of Puerto Rico and D.C.

If we take these statements seriously, it sounds as though these Republicans believe that the GOP would be unable to gain any support in Puerto Rico for the next century or longer, and that they have so little support in the rest of the country that their political party would be destroyed.

Where do they get this idea?

One possibility is that they are mixing up Puerto Ricans in current blue states with Puerto Ricans on the Island.  New York is a blue state, and the majority of Puerto Rican voters voted for the Democratic candidate in recent presidential elections. Not so much in Florida. But Puerto Rican voters on the Island don’t identify with Democratic or Republican parties most of the time. Political parties on the Island are divided by their preferred status option: statehood, independence, or remaining a territory. The current governor and her predecessor were both statehood supporters, but the current governor is Republican and the previous one was a Democrat. Split tickets are the norm in Puerto Rico, too, again showing that Puerto Rico’s voters are not a monolithic voting bloc.

Compared with other Hispanic voters, Puerto Rican voters on the Island are more conservative socially. They are likely to be receptive to Republican policies…except for one thing. Puerto Rican voters in the states are more likely to vote for candidates who support statehood. By rejecting Puerto Rico statehood and trash talking about Puerto Rico, Republicans themselves are make it harder for Republicans to appeal to Puerto Rico voters.

The connection between statehood for Puerto Rico and statehood for D.C. is another possible issue. While it could well be that Puerto Rico could join as a red state and D.C. as a blue state, the fact that D.C. does tend to vote Democratic may cause Republicans to think the two states would be a blue package deal. In fact, D.C. and Puerto Rico are in very different positions. Puerto Rico is a territory and D. C., the District of Columbia, is a district. States don’t have to join in pairs, and the statehood efforts of the two places aren’t really yoked together.

Statehood candidates have the edge

There is a growing perception that independence  is becoming the most popular choice for Puerto Rico’s status. In fact, it got just under 12% of the vote in 2024. Surveys have shown that it is more popular among Puerto Ricans living in states (where they wouldn’t have to live with the hardships involved) , but the totals for stateside Puerto Ricans top out at just about 15% in nationwide surveys. Stateside Puerto Ricans don’t vote in status votes for Puerto Rico and their slightly higher numbers favoring independence don’t change the basic reality: Puerto Rican voters in the Staes and on the Island tend to support statehood candidates.

A recent survey of 1,000 Hispanic voters across the United States, 600 of whom were Puerto Rican, found that 67% would prefer to vote for a candidate who supports statehood for Puerto Rico. Given additional information, that number rose to 76%. Interestingly, other Hispanic voters had slightly lower numbers, but the majorities still would choose to vote for statehood supporters.

While the fact that Puerto Rico’s voters tend to be more conservative suggests that they might tend to side with the Republican Party, there is a much more certain answer to the question, “Which party will Puerto Rico vote for?” The answer is, “The party that supports statehood for Puerto Rico.”

And it is worth remembering that Hawaii was expected to be a red state and Alaska was expected to be a blue state. Things turned out differently. Puerto Rico would most likely be a swing state and either national party could gain supporters in the new state with persuasive messages. Supporting statehood for Puerto Rico is the right thing to do. That’s reason enough to do it.