What, if anything, is going on between Puerto Rico and Venezuela? Venezuela’s President Maduro threatened to invade Puerto Rico “with Brazilian troops” earlier this year, and further threatened Governor Gonzalez-Colon by saying that “Venezuelan women will be waiting” for her if she goes to Venezuela in a menacing tone. Gonzalez-Colon has supported President Trump in his attacks on Venezuelan ships which he has identified as drug-smuggling vessels. Puerto Rico is the nearest point to Venezuela under the U.S. flag. Is that all there is to it?
Is the U.S. gearing up for a fight with Venezuela?
People who make this claim are basing it on some facts:
- The U.S. has attacked six Venezuelan boats in the Caribbean, with 27 casualties.
- President Trump has officially claimed that the U.S. is at war with drug cartels. The notice did not mention Venezuela, but the attacks have all been on Venezuelan nationals.
- “We are certainly looking at land now because we’ve got the sea under control,” Trump told Time magazine when asked if he would consider land strikes against Venezuela.
- Warships, military aircraft, amphibious vessels, and military personnel have been stationed in Puerto Rico.
- Trump has authorized CIA operations in Venezuela.
- Secretary of State Marco Rubio describes Venezuela’s President Maduro as “a “fugitive from American justice” and the head of “a terrorist organization and organized crime organization that have taken over a country.”
- Trump said, “We’ve recently begun using the supreme power of the United States military to destroy Venezuelan terrorists and trafficking networks led by Nicolás Maduro,” in a speech to the United Nations. He directed a further remark to terrorists: “We will blow you out of existence.”
- Maduro has declared an emergency on the basis of an “imperialist invasion” threatened by the United States.
Members of the House and Senate have warned that these actions could lead to war. Under U.S. law, Congress must declare war. However, Congress has generally supported Trump’s plans.
If there were a war between Venezuela and the United States, would Puerto Rico be involved?
Puerto Rico is undoubtedly the best strategic choice for staging any conflict between the U.S. and Venezuela. Puerto Rico its a territory of the United States, with three million citizens, a high percentage of whom choose to serve in the U.S. military. The U.S. already owns land which has in the past been a military base, and the U.S. military is already using this location.
What’s most likely to happen next?
Even though things are tense between the U.S. and Venezuela, and the military forces of the two nations are now in close proximity with the military buildup in Puerto Rico, forecasters consider it unlikely that there will be an actual war. The lack of encouragement from Congress and the relatively small number of troops in place are among the reasons given for this claim.
Ideally, the conflict would support defense of Puerto Rico from drug cartels and related crime, which is a problem on the Island. Leaders have previously complained about the lack of this kind of support from the federal government. It could also increase awareness of the importance of Puerto Rico in U.S. national security. Serving as the regional hub for the current situation and possible escalation offers both risks and opportunities for Puerto Rico. Jobs, infrastructure investments, and long-term improvements in logistics capacity could be positive outcomes. Environmental and human safety concerns would be serious risks.
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