It’s well known that Puerto Ricans living in states tend to support independence more than those living on the Island. Polls in states may show triple the support for independence as polls in Puerto Rico. This may not be surprising; naturally, it’s easier to accept disruption in the lives of other people than disruption in our own lives. What might be surprising, though, is that people living in states are also more likely to want independence for their own states than people living in Puerto Rico.
Are you willing to secede?
If Puerto Rico wanted independence, the territory could declare independence. We don’t know how Congress would respond, since it has never happened, but it would be possible under the U.S. Constitution for Congress to accept the declaration and renounce sovereignty over the Island. States don’t have this option. If a state decides not to be a state any longer, they would have to secede — that is, to separate from the Union. This is not legal under the Constitution. The last time it happened, Congress refused to allow it, and we had a Civil War.
Even today, this war is the bloodiest war the U.S. has ever been involved in, considering U.S. casualties. About 2% of the nation’s population died in battles or from disease.
YouGov conducted a poll across the nation, asking, “Would you support your state seceding from the U.S.?” They got at least 100 response from most states and eliminated the states which didn’t provide that many answers. They needed up with more than 27,000 responses. On average, 20% of Americans said yes.
Independence has never gotten 20% in any poll or status vote in Puerto Rico — not even close.
Then what?
Among those who wanted to secede, 49% didn’t have any further plans.
28% wanted independence. Texas has historically had the strongest separatist movement, often called “Texit,” and many Texan separatists point out that Texas actually was a republic for nine years. According to the Texas Tribune, Austin history prof Walter Buenger says the Republic of Texas “was a disaster. They couldn’t get their taxes right. They couldn’t defend themselves. They couldn’t get a rational foreign policy.”
On the other hand, Texit activist Claver Kamau-Imani says, “After Texit, we’re gonna be rich!” Currently, 38% of Texas revenue comes from the U.S., much of Texas’s economy relies on government contracts, and 11% of Texans rely on food stamps and 16% on Medicaid. Texas, with the 8th largest economy in the world, could make up the difference, separatists say, if they were free of federal regulation.
29% of those agreeing to secede want to become independent countries, but they wanted to join other states to do it. None of the current independence movements have multi-state plans so that’s one more thing they’d need to work out.
Those two groups — some 25% of all respondents — either want independence for their state alone or with other states. Tiny fractions want to join Canada, Mexico, the United Kingdom, or some other country.
Will the United States break apart?
The state with the largest percentage of “yes” votes on secession was California, with 27%. While 27% is a far larger proportion of separatists than Puerto Rico has ever had, it is still a minority in the state.
While the Texit website claims that “the federal government will not move to stop Texit once it’s been decided by the people of Texas and they most certainly won’t use the military. It’s just too impractical,” the alternative would be a constitutional amendment to make peaceful secession legal. What would the federal government do? For Texas or any other state, or for Puerto Rico — which would not be breaking the law by declaring independence — it’s impossible to say for sure. We can say that without a clear majority, no state is likely to try it.
We can also say that the great majority of people living in the states prefer to live in a state rather than any other option. Puerto Ricans would also prefer to live in a state — even more than state residents do. Let your representatives know that this is true.
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